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Few economic models withstanding recession

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Victor Smart's picture

Is this recession the great global leveller?

One of the most sobering aspects of the current financial crisis is the way that so many different economies and so many different types of economy have been hit.

China, boasting as it did a double-digit growth rate and vast reserves, looked to be in a commanding position. The US with its creative businesses like Apple, the financial muscle of Wall Street, plus an uncompromising belief in free markets looked equally impressive.

Britain boasted its world-class financial services and Japan its world-class manufacturing coupled with a managed form of capitalism. Germany meanwhile had leading-edge manufacturers, strong financial services and a social system which looked after the poor, the unemployed and the sick.

Surely when the chill winds of recession hit, one of these diverse range of economic models would thrive while the others wilted? In reality, the opposite has happened. All have been sent reeling under the blows, though China does at least look like maintaining some positive economic growth.

In upcoming blog posts I’ll be exploring some of the emerging themes that will characterise the new landscape. But for now – what do you think the future holds for our diverse but interdependent economies?

 

few economic models withstanding recession

One of the most common errors in models appears to be the assumption that past events will continue into the future. In other words, many models build on the current situation. Thus there is an assumption that current market pratices will continue into the future. What the current global financial crisis reveals is that most Western "consumption economies" (e.g. USA, U K etc) depend on the willingness of the conservative "savings economies" (e.g. China, Saudi Arabia etc) to continue to fund their lifestyle. Major problems will emerge if Western "consumption economies" have to fund their own economic activities.

Equal distribution of wealth/earnings/contracts

Equal distribution of wealth/economies would cushion any bubble burst caused short of supplies. With equal distribution, many decision makers can harmonise demand & supply. Not influenced by few rich conglomerates or individuals that caused havoc for other people who want to live too. Monopoly, oligopoly, cartel or any small groups that have trade influences should be barred or ban.